This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
2026 is here - Happy New Year!
For your eyes only, I have a three-part 2026 Outlook series I am working on...
In Part One of this 2026 Outlook, I will focus solely on price-action on the quarterly and monthly timeframes across crypto, with this being foundational for informing our view for the year ahead.
In Part Two, I will look more closely at price-action in TradFi markets, like the Dollar Index, Gold, SPX, Copper and Crude Oil.
Price-action validates or invalidates our beliefs and ideas about markets and so I prefer to begin higher-timeframe analysis by looking at market structure, momentum and other technicals before allowing myself the luxury of getting into the weeds with regards to 'macro', 'fundamentals, 'themes' etc.
As mentioned in this week's Market Outlook, this should be taken with a large grain of salt, as I am very much an 'if -> then' market participant, whose views evolve frequently as price-action develops and as new macro headwinds and tailwinds make themselves known.
As such, Part Three- which will be a little more fun, and where I will cover some predictions, calls, fundamental views etc. - should be taken with a kilogram of salt, and whilst I will endeavour to make said calls as best I can with the information I have today, those who read my work on a weekly basis will know that I update these views all the time and will continue to publish new thoughts regularly.
In Part One, I will focus on price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins via OTHERS: I think having a firm grasp of how price is behaving for each of these on the higher timeframes will be indispensable for the year ahead.
Now, let's dig into what the quarterly and monthly timeframes are showing us across these assets:
Bitcoin:
Price: $89,900
Quarterly:
Beginning with the quarterly for Bitcoin, we can see that Q4 2025 saw price make new all-time highs at $126.3k and then reject and close at $87.5k, below the 2025 Open at $93.3k, thus making 2025 a down year for BTC. Despite this, we remain above the 2021 cycle highs and the March 2024 highs, which have formed a major support zone between $65k-$74k, with the top end of that zone being the 2025 low from April. The 5-year moving average is at $56k, whilst the anchored VWAP from the 2018 low is around $28k. Whilst we did see that anchored VWAP tagged in the 2022 bear market before price bottomed out, I think it is extremely improbable to anticipate such prices without a major global recession in 2026. Interestingly, the anchored VWAP from the 2022 bottom (not marked on the chart) is roughly confluent with the 5-year moving average at $56k, and that moving average has been tagged (there or thereabouts) in each of the prior 4 Bitcoin bear markets. If 2026 is to be another down year for Bitcoin, $56k appears a highly probable target for the next cyclical low, assuming 4-year cycle theory remains valid. Now, as this is a quarterly chart, it is difficult to glean much from momentum, but it is interesting to note that where lower timeframes showed a momentum divergence on the push to all-time highs (more on this later), 3-month RSI did not, instead showing a steadily growing long-term trend. Further, looking at price-action alone, despite the Q4 correction, price remains above prior highs turned support at $73.6k - the April 2025 low. I think if we see a quarterly close below that low, it becomes very likely that the rest of the year is spent trading into and around the 5-year moving average; but, if Q1 fails to break and close below that level, marking out a higher-low above it, I think it becomes more probable that the trend continues higher and we make new all-time highs, either in late Q1 or in Q2. $73.6k is, for me, the most important level on the quarterly timeframe in Q1 2026 for the rest of the calendar year.
Monthly:
Turning to the monthly, we can see that price ran to $126k on diverging RSI, thus prompting analogues to 2021, but, unlike that period, AO did not confirm this divergence and showed continued momentum to the upside. (This is one of many difference to 2021, both technical and fundamental, that I will not reiterate here). Nonetheless, we did see price reject $126.3k, break and close back below $108.3k as resistance and then move below the 365d rolling VWAP at $98k, closing November below that level but forming - for now - a higher-low at $80.5k above the $73.6k prior lows. December was then an inside month, consolidating within the range of November on less volume, as was expected following that November move. We now have the anchored VWAP from all-time highs sat right around the 365d rolling VWAP at the psychological $100k level, and no doubt this will be a pivotal level in Q1 2026. We also have mixed signals, where AO is pointing towards a steady long-term trend and RSI showed trend exhaustion, whilst price closed below the 365d rolling VWAP on the monthly timeframe for the first time since the long-term trend began, but with weekly structure still bullish as the $73.6k swing-low remains intact. This is why the $100k level is so critical - it is highly probable that we retest it in Q1, and if the 2021/22 analogue is correct and the 4-year cycle remains valid, we should see Bitcoin reject $100k, fail to close the monthly above it and then turn and break lower, closing below the November $80k low and likely breaking the $73.6k swing-low from April 2025. This pattern would be typical of a Bitcoin bear market in 2026, and the probability of new all-time highs in 2026, in my view, runs swiftly towards zero, with the highest probability scenario from Q2-Q4 a period of re-accumulation at lower levels (like the 5-year moving average, as highlighted above). The bullish scenario here is that weekly structure remains intact despite the break below the 365d rolling VWAP and we see a monthly close above $100k in Q1. As long as we don't then immediately close back below that level the subsequent month and it acts as reclaimed support, the picture is very different to Q1 2022, where instead we would have a reclaim of key levels within a long-term bullish trend after a capitulation event. This is my base case, to be clear, and I expect that $100k becomes support again in the first half of Q1 and we then trade new highs by early Q2, breaking the 4-year cycle theory and continuing the 'higher for longer' regime within H1 2026.
Ethereum:
Price: $3,102
ETH/USD
Quarterly:
Looking at the quarterly for ETH/USD, we can see that price has been trending higher in a very cumbersome way since the 2022 lows, but price failed to spend any time in price discovery in 2025, making a marginal new all-time high at $4955 above the 2021 highs but then rejecting and closing Q3 at ~$4100 (the highest quarterly close of all time). Price then retested the 2021 high at $4868 as resistance in Q4 2025, rejected and broke lower, pushing towards the 5-year moving average at $2550 but closing Q4 at $2966, below the 2025 Open at $3330. Q4 was actually an inside quarter, trading entirely within the range of Q3, which is relatively rare. Trendline support from the 2022 lows is down near $1700 and should ETH close Q1 below the 5-year moving average and Q4 low, I think that is it's most likely destination. We can see that momentum has been as sideways as price-action - and really ETH has just been consolidating between $2280-$4100 for two years, with deviations either side of that range. On this timeframe, it is hard to view this as anything more than continued consolidation within a long-term uptrend. The formation of that new all-time high and all-time high quarterly close in Q3, following by the consolidation quarter within that range in Q4, makes me more convinced that ETH is more likely to break out than break down, particularly given my view on BTC. As such, as long as we don't close Q1 below $2550, I think we should expect upside resolution of what is effectively a 4-year ascending triangle, where a quarterly close back above $4100 would be the clearest signal for price discovery in 2026.
Monthly:
Turning to the monthly, we can see that price has bullish structure and marginally bullish momentum, with a higher-high into that all-time high at $4955 that was supported by growing momentum. Following the multi-month correction off that all-time high, price has returned the 5-year moving average, but also the mid-range of the 2022 bear market, around which it is now consolidating, with monthly momentum still supportive of a long-term uptrend. As mentioned above, if we close below $2550, the most probable scenario for the rest of the year is a return to the bottom of the channel, somewhere around $1700-$1800. However, I will reiterate that we have bullish structure on the monthly timeframe, within a multi-year uptrend, with price consolidating right around the mid-range of the prior bear market. If there was an opportune entry for a non-consensus bet on continuation of the trend, it is likely around here, where invalidation is clear and relatively tight, and the upside is at least a retest of the top of the range, if not price discovery. We have the anchored VWAP from the all-time high at $3800 and then the all-important $4100 level above that, and that range is where I think it is likely we see sellers step in on a Q1 retest of the zone, but should they fail and price closes above $4100 in Q1, I think we see new highs for ETH in Q2.
ETH/BTC
Quarterly:
Now, looking at the quarterly for ETH/BTC, this is where the view is made more convincing for upside for ETH in H1 2026. 2025 saw ETH/BTC bottom out at 0.0177 in April, then begin a multi-month rally, taking out the yearly open at 0.0357 and wicking into 0.0417, before rejecting and close Q3 just above that yearly open and printing a quarterly swing-low above the 2019 lows. We then saw Q4 compress tightly right around the 2025 open, closing the year marginally red at 0.0339. We have major support at 0.0231, which, if we close Q1 below the Q4 low, is likely where the pair is headed and would align with a bearish 2026. However, this - if it was not ETH - would be viewed by anyone focused solely on price as a bullish setup on the higher timeframes: we have the formation of a quarterly swing-low as a higher-low above the previous cycle low after years of downtrend from the 2022 highs, with consensus expectations of a bear market in 2026 for crypto. Looking solely at this, one would have to make the case that the bear market for ETH/BTC has already occurred and we have only just emerged from it in H2 2025 with the formation of that swing-low. If we close Q1 above 0.0357, the next major resistance is the 2022 low, the 2024 open and the 5-year moving average, all in that range between 0.049-0.054, and I would expect that zone to be tested in Q2 if 0.0357 turns support.
Monthly:
Dropping into the monthly timeframe, again it is really difficult to make the case for the 'beginning of a bear market' as per prior 4-year cycles when you just glance at this chart. We had over 3 years of downtrend in a parabolic fashion, culminating in a capitulation low in April 2025 with momentum at all-time lows. We then marked out a swing-low above the 2019 low, rallied higher and pushed into trendline resistance from the 2022 highs, which capped price at 0.0417 in Q3. ETH/BTC then corrected and formed - for now - a higher-low at 0.0308 and is now consolidating below the 2025 open and trendline resistance. Monthly momentum on RSI remains below 50 and AO has not flipped positive yet this entire cycle. If we are taking it at face value, structure, momentum and price-action are more resemblant of H2 2020 than H1 2022. It is my view that the higher timeframes are explicitly bullish for ETH/BTC - and if they are bullish for ETH/BTC it is quite difficult to be bearish ETH/USD (and implicit in that is contrarian bullishness for crypto in H1 2026). Now, should we close below 0.0308, as mentioned above, the more probable outcome is a return to the base at 0.023, which would make it highly improbable we see strength in H1, but should we close above that trendline and flip 0.0357 into support, I think ETH/BTC trades 0.054 before July - and then we can assess whether there is scope for continuation in H2 or signs of exhaustion.
Others
Price: $215bn
OTHERS/USD
Quarterly:
Beginning with the quarterly for OTHERS, which, for those unaware, is the top 125 altcoins excluding the top 10, we can see that the altcoin market has been in a multi-year consolidation, much like ETH, going basically nowhere since Q4 2023, finding resistance around $335bn and support around $220bn for most of that period, with deviations above and below this range. We tagged as high as $452bn in 2024, whilst forming lows at $150bn in both 2024 and Q4 2025. We have successive lower quarterly closes, corresponding with lower-highs on quarterly RSI, with the most recent seeing alts reject at the 2025 open in Q3 before that Q4 obliteration, leading to a 2025 close for OTHERS at $200bn - still very much right around range support. The 5-year moving average that marked the 2018 lows and the 2022 lows has now converged with the market at $217bn following such an extensive period of sideways price-action, whilst the anchored VWAP from the 2015 all-time lows is also right around this level at $227bn, with the anchored VWAP from the 2021 all-time highs sightly higher at $254bn. In short, OTHERS appears to have reached equilibrium, with the top 125 alts ex. top 10 valued at between $217bn-$254bn for most of the past 2 years. Now, where are we headed? Well, perhaps more of the same, sideways chop between $150bn and $430bn, with most of that clustered around the mid-$200bn mark. Given the setup on BTC and ETH, I think quarterly closes below $73.6k and $2550, respectively, leads to OTHERS below $150bn and making a move towards the 2022 lows around the 2018 highs of ~$80bn - true bear market obliteration. However, I think whilst $150bn is acting as a floor despite major liquidation events, and whilst my view for both BTC and ETH is that their respective market structures remain bullish, I think consolidation is the most probable outcome, until BTC closes above $100k and ETH closes above $4100 on the monthly timeframe. In that scenario, I think OTHERS closes above $335bn resistance and returns to the top of the range, then - and only if ETH itself is able to break out of its multi-year ascending triangle - pushing into price discovery beyond $500bn sometime in Q2. Looking at price-action solely on this quarterly timeframe, there is very little that can be gleaned directionally because we really are just seeing a sideways market - there is no trend exhaustion, but there is also no structural breakdown: we are in perfect equilibrium between $200bn-$250bn and I think it is going to take the majors breaking convincingly higher or lower to drive midcap alts out of this consolidation.
Monthly:
Turning now to the monthly, we can see this range more clearly, with 671 days spent largely between $335bn as resistance and $200bn as support, with two major breaks below that support and one breakout above resistance during that period. Monthly momentum is sideways, though again we saw Dec 2024 diverge on RSI but show growing momentum on AO, with price-action since then marking a lower-high below the 2025 Open at $335bn and holding the $150bn 2024 low on the 10/10 liquidation event. Monthly structure is technically bullish, as we have higher-highs and higher-lows, and whilst we did form that lower-high at $335bn, we failed to close below the $150bn swing-low that preceded the previous higher-high. As mentioned above, if we close the monthly below that $150bn level then monthly structure turns bearish and it is highly probable the rest of 2026 is spent trending towards $80bn, where consolidation is likely to reoccur. Until then, I am cautiously optimistic that this consolidation resolves upwards in H1 2026 with a monthly close above $335bn, primarily because of the technical setups in BTC and ETH, along with some more macro-related views for 2026 on the whole that I will cover in Part Three.
OTHERS/BTC
Quarterly:
Looking at OTHERS/BTC on the quarterly timeframe, again, much like ETH/BTC, we can see that the market has been in a downtrend since January 2022. Alts priced in Bitcoin have been in, or are still in, a bear market for 4 years. The notion that we are 'entering' a bear market makes no sense - we can continue the bear market, but there has been no bull market for the top 125 altcoins ex. top 10 vs. BTC. If we look at price-action, trendline resistance from the 2022 highs has capped the small rallies we have had during this downtrend, and 2025 saw OTHERS/BTC break lower from the open at 3.6mn BTC and then consolidate around support at 2mn BTC for most of the year, trapped in a range between that level as support and historical resistance around 3mn BTC. Q4 saw the largest altcoin liquidation event in history - after 4 years of downtrend - with alts retest the January 2021 low at 1.4mn BTC and bouncing to close Q4 back above 2mn. The range between 1.15mn and 1.4mn BTC has marked the lows for alts vs BTC in 2017 and 2021 and now potentially again in 2025. The bear case here for continuation of this downtrend would be for Q1 to close below 2mn BTC support, and then the rest of 2026 be spent filling in the wick back towards the historical range lows for re-accumulation going into 2027 after a 5-year bear market. The bull case here is that October was the capitulation event that ended the 4-year bear market for alts vs BTC and a Q1 close above 3mn BTC resistance would confirm this for me, where we would also see a trendline breakout for the first time this entire downtrend.
To be honest, looking purely at the chart, I have no idea whether we get this in Q1, but it does seem more probable to me that we are closer to the bottom of a ALT/BTC bear market than we are to a top.
If we simply take the 3-month chart at face value and forget it is OTHERS/BTC, would you be looking for longs here, would you be neutral or would you be aggressively chasing shorts? It is my view that at the crescendo of 4-year cycle theory for Bitcoin and a 4-year bear market for alts vs BTC, the majority have finally grown comfortable with shorting alts, with consensus takes all over my timeline of 'short alts, long BTC in 2026 to get rich'. We have had 4 years of that working (as those without Bitcoin or even majors in their portfolio would painfully attest to) - perhaps we get a 5th, but looking at this chart I would not be comfortable making that bet.
The left tail risk here is a major global recession in 2026 that leads to OTHERS/BTC breaking the bottom of that historical support and trading back towards 2015/2016 levels - but this is, in my view, extremely improbable. The highest probability bearish outcome from this point is a close below 2mn BTC that leads to filling in the wick into 1.4mn BTC in 2026 and then that being the bottom of a 5-year bear market. The highest probability bullish outcome is that we have already bottomed and acceptance above 3mn BTC and trendline resistance would confirm this. Until then - neutral and more sideways between 2mn and 3mn BTC for OTHERS.
Now, what could drive another speculation cycle in alts relative to BTC (not necessarily to new absolute highs, however)? That's a very juicy question and perhaps something I will cover in Part Three...
Monthly:
Finally, if we look at the monthly for OTHERS/BTC, we can see that since June 2025 alts have really done nothing vs. BTC, except for the 10/10 liquidation event. We had one major liq event in that 7-month period and other than that they have been stuck between support at 2mn BTC and resistance at 3mn BTC, though following that high prices have been capped by the 365d rolling VWAP, now at 2.4mn BTC. There is a confluence at the 4.4mn BTC level of the 5-year moving average, the anchored VWAP from 2021 all-time highs and the anchored VWAP from all-time lows. Monthly structure is bearish with a series of lower-lows and highs since January 2022 and price has failed to convincingly reclaim any prior support levels during this downtrend. Monthly momentum is at all-time lows on RSI and basing around there, whilst AO has been negative since 2023. Again, there are some similarities here to ETH/BTC, except that alts look closer to H2 2019 than even H2 2020, let alone Jan 2018 or Jan 2022.
We would need to see OTHERS/BTC close above the 365d rolling VWAP to grow confident, but really you want a monthly close above 3mn BTC for a sustained relief rally. In that scenario, I would be looking for ALT/BTC longs all the way back into that cluster of resistance at 4.4mn BTC. If we close below 2mn BTC, then I think you can look for shorts again on alts vs BTC for the coming months to backfill the wick, but until that occurs I think going into this year with a bias towards shorting alts hedged by longing BTC could get you blown out in H1.
I hope you've found some value in Part One of this 3-part series on my 2026 Outlook. Much more to come - please do share if you've enjoyed it!
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